The machine decides that a person obeys

Brave New World: Some mutual funds rely on the computer. And, of course, achieved during the great crash profits.
Striking peace in this office floor, through the glass walls is subdivided. Normally radiates a trade hall with brokers from more hectic. But this is only the monotonous, incessant hum of the printer to listen. And now slipping again a DIN A4 page in the gray output tray of the device. "Sell" is there, and sell. And among them we read, what will be sold. It is gold price. The stock broker is studying the particulars of the quantity of gold to be sold, and then proceeding to action.
In this commercial space is only done what the computer bids. 24 billion U.S. dollars are the ones here are managed. 15 men and a woman sitting in front of around 50 screens. They are mostly vicarious agents of the machine. "We get the computer up to 4000 buy and sell signals on the day," says the dealer Murray Steel. "And we handle these transactions on the stock markets down." AHL is the name of the computer program, which owns rights to the British Man Group, a global hedge funds provider.
It seems strange that the computer decide where to invest client funds. And yet developed this model, fixation of an appeal, because it fairly successful. "Managed Futures", so hot these strategies made in recent years, profits, than the competition recorded losses - even in 2008, when it worldwide on the stock markets went down. Futures are futures contracts, contracts in which buyer and seller agree on a specified date a particular product at a price fixed in advance to act.
Statisticians, the figures love
Forwards are a great way to hedge risks. Previously, only farmers used these contracts to get a fixed price for example, for the wheat harvest to secure. The American Stock Exchange CBOT were recorded in 1848 as a grain exchange was founded. Since the seventies, there are the first futures contracts on currencies and interest rates. Meanwhile, it is almost everything on futures trading: stock indexes, bonds, oil, sugar, gold, copper.
Since the turn of the millennium, the assets under management of managed futures globally from 50 to over 200 billion U.S. dollars increased. The term "Managed" means that over again, it will be decided whether, for example, an oil futures by a gold futures contract is concluded. The calculator analyzes price data in order to identify price trends. "We are many statisticians, such as love, we love numbers and patterns," says the expert Keith Ballmer.
Easy way: If the price of a share from two to three and then to four euros, then this is a trend that is very likely to continue. When the stock markets fell in 2008, it was also a trend of systems such as the AHL has been recognized and exploited.
There are many investors who think little of such computational models, because they are a bit esoteric. On the other hand, show that some of these systems over many years have worked (see chart). The American scientist Burton Malkiel developed 1973 the theory that the probability of whether a stock price rises or falls, each day is equal to a price forecast, and thus impossible (random walk theory).
Mathematical models follow trend
Others, such as Yale Professor Benoit Mandelbrot say that phase of extreme price movements are, where the probability for a particular price direction was higher than usual This is where mathematical models to follow trend. "There are patterns in human behavior, which has emerged over the evolution," says Yasin Sebastian Qureshi, chairman of the Hamburg Wertpapierhandelsbank Varengold.
Also, the Managed Futures Fund "Varengold CTA Hedge" has the stock market crisis well. The roof is from hedge funds, a minimum sum of 1000Euro draw, the AHL, there is diversity on the German company Apano in the form of certificates to buy. "We are experiencing a paradigm shift in the financial industry," says Qureshi. "Escape from Long-only approaches towards a more opportunistic approach."
Long-only means that investors' shares in the loss of further phases keep opportunistic means that funds are trying to get off before the course drops. Some managed futures funds - certainly not all - have managed that. How they do it? The recipe for success lies in the shallows of Probability hidden. Visibility is just the piece of paper from the printer, on the stands, what to do.